[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over Africa extends from 3N8W to 14N4W moving west
10 to 15 kt. Wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough and
is embedded within an area of deep moisture.  No associated deep
convection.

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 36W
from 1N to 8N moving west near 15 kt. Wave coincides with a
lowly amplified 700 mb trough and along the leading edge of an
area of deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is
associated with the ITCZ not the tropical wave.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 58W
south of 11N to inland over Guyana South America moving west
near 25 kt. Wave coincides with an highly amplified 700 mb
trough and is along the leading edge of an area of deep
moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean along 79W extends south
of 13N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving west 5
to 10 kt. Wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough and is
embedded within a large area of deep moisture. No associated
deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 5N21W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 6N28W to the tropical wave near 5N35W then
resumes west of the wave near 5N37W to South America near 3N51W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90/120 NM
north of the ITCZ between 39W-43W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-8N east of
16W to inland over Sierra Leone Africa, within 90 NM of monsoon
trough/ITCZ between 20W-28W, within 60 NM of the ITCZ between
28W-33W, and within 120 NM south of the ITCZ between 35W-43W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 5N-8N between
50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends
over east Mexico, east Texas, and Oklahoma while an upper trough
extends over the far east CONUS, east of the Florida peninsula
into the west Caribbean. This is giving the Gulf northwest flow
aloft. Although the upper ridge is advecting moisture across the
west Gulf, no shower activity is noted on radar or satellite
imagery this morning. A surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic across northeast Florida to a 1021 mb high near 30N86W
continuing to Corpus Christi Texas. The upper trough east of
Florida is generating some scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms south of 25N east of 84W including the Florida
Keys leaving the remainder of the Gulf with mostly clear skies
this morning. The surface ridge will persist over the Gulf
through Friday. The pressure gradient will increase over the
northwest Gulf Friday morning increasing the southeast winds to
fresh to strong. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each
night into the early morning hours along the north and west
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula due to the local effects of a
diurnal surface trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A highly amplified upper trough extends east of the Florida
peninsula across Cuba into the west Caribbean west of 70W while
an equally highly amplified upper ridge extends from over South
America across the Lesser Antilles into the west-central
Atlantic covering the remainder of the Caribbean basin. The
upper trough is generating scattered showers/thunderstorms from
13N-18N between 74W-82W including Jamaica and from 20N-22N
between 81W-84W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are north of 13N to over Hispaniola and west Cuba
between 68W-75W. The ITCZ extends along 10N between Colombia and
Costa Rica into the east Pacific region generating isolated
showers/thunderstorms south of 10N east of 76W to inland over
Panama. Although the upper ridge is advecting moisture across
the central Caribbean, no shower activity is noted on radar or
satellite imagery this morning. Surface ridge over the west
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean through Thursday. Winds will diminish
across the basin Thursday as a surface trough intensifies across
the west Atlantic weakening the surface ridge. The tropical wave
in the southwest Caribbean will exit the basin early Thursday.
Another tropical wave will enter the southeast Caribbean early
Thursday.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across
the island this morning. The upper trough currently over eastern
Cuba and the western Caribbean will expand eastward Thursday and
Friday. A surface trough over the western Atlantic is expected
to intensify and coupled with the upper trough will continue to
the give the island chances of showers and possible
thunderstorms through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1023
mb high near 32N76W and extending a ridge axis across northeast
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A highly amplified upper trough
extends over the far eastern CONUS, just east of the Florida
peninsula then across Cuba into the western Caribbean covering
the western Atlantic west of 68W while an equally highly
amplified upper ridge extends from over South America across the
Lesser Antilles and into the west-central Atlantic to beyond
32N60W. This is creating a diffluent environment over a portion
of the west Atlantic to generate scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms southwest of the Bahamas through the Straits of
Florida west of 71W. Isolated showers are possible between 64W-
72W. Beneath all of the activity above is a dissipating
stationary front that extends through 32N65W to 29N70W
continuing as a surface trough to 25N75W. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a
1032 mb high near 35N46W. The west Atlantic surface trough will
retrograde slowly reaching near 75W this weekend. A low could
form along this trough over weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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