[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over Africa extends from 3N7W to 13N5W moving west
near 10 to 15 kt. Wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough
and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated
convection in the Atlantic waters.

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 34W
from 1N to 9N moving west 10 to 15 kt. Wave is trailing an
amplified 700 mb trough and along the leading edge of an area of
deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is associated with
the ITCZ not the tropical wave.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic is extends along 58W
south of 11N to inland over Guyana South America moving west 25
to 30 kt. Wave coincides with an highly amplified 700 mb trough
and is along the leading edge of an area of deep moisture. No
associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean along 78W extends south
of 14N to over Panama and southwest Colombia moving west near 10
kt. Wave coincides with a low amplified 700 mb trough and is
embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep
convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 5N20W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 6N30W to the tropical wave near 5N33W then
resumes west of the wave near 5N36W to South America near 3N51W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
within 90 NM of monsoon trough/ITCZ between 19W-29W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from 5N-8N between 10W-17W
and from 2N-6N between 31W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends
over east Mexico and east Texas while and upper trough extends
over the far east CONUS and the Florida peninsula into the west
Caribbean. This is giving the Gulf northwest flow aloft.
Although the upper ridge is advecting moisture across the west
Gulf, no shower activity is noted on radar or satellite imagery
tonight. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across
northeast Florida to a 1020 mb high near 29N85W continuing to
near Corpus Christi Texas. The upper trough over the Florida is
generating some isolated showers/thunderstorms from the Florida
Keys to the north coast of Cuba east of 83W leaving the
remainder of the Gulf with mostly clear skies tonight. The
surface ridge will persist over the Gulf through Friday. The
pressure gradient will increase over the northwest Gulf Thursday
night through Friday morning increasing the southeast winds to
fresh to strong. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each
night into the early morning hours along the north and west
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula due to the local effects of a
diurnal surface trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper trough extends across the Florida peninsula across
Cuba into the west Caribbean west of 70W while an equally sharp
upper ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser
Antilles into the west-central Atlantic covering the remainder
of the Caribbean basin. The upper trough is generating scattered
showers/thunderstorms from 16N-20N between 73W-81W including
Jamaica, and portions of Cuba and Haiti. The ITCZ extends from
11N79W across Costa Rica into the east Pacific region near
10N83W generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south
of 11N east of 78W to inland over Panama and Costa Rica.
Although the upper ridge is advecting moisture across the east
Caribbean, no shower activity is noted on radar or satellite
imagery tonight. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Thursday. Winds and seas will diminish across
the basin late Thursday as a surface trough intensifies across
the west Atlantic. The tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean
will exit the basin Thursday. Another tropical wave will enter
the southeast Caribbean Thursday, moving into the south-central
Caribbean Friday.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over
portions of Haiti, leaving the Dominican Republic under mostly
clear skies tonight. The upper trough currently over eastern
Cuba and the western Caribbean will expand eastward Thursday and
Friday. A surface trough over the western Atlantic is expected
to intensify and coupled with lingering moisture will continue
to the give the island chances of showers and possible
thunderstorms through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a pair
of 1022 mb highs near 30N77W and 33N76w and extending a ridge
axis across northeast Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A sharp
upper trough extends over the far eastern CONUS across the
Florida peninsula and Cuba into the western Caribbean covering
the western Atlantic west of 70W while an equally sharp upper
ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser Antilles
and into the west-central Atlantic to beyond 32N61W. This is
creating a diffluent environment over a portion of the west
Atlantic to generate scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
south of 23N to the Greater Antilles between 67W-76W. Scattered
showers are from 23N-30N between 63W-70W. Beneath all of the
activity above is a dissipating stationary front that extends
through 32N68W along 28N70W to 25N75W and a surface trough
analyzed from 26N68W to north of Hispaniola near 20N70W.
The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface
ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high near 35N45W. The west Atlantic
dissipating front will continue southeast becoming a frontal
trough Wednesday and extending from 32N64W to the southeast
Bahamas Wednesday night, then move back west Thursday and Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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