[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning on Meteo-France outlook...Winds are
forecast to near gale to gale between 17/1200 UTC and 18/1200
UTC along the African coast over the area of Agadir.  Please see
the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the
following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large,
Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and enters the
east Tropical Atlantic near 07N11W to 05N15W.  The ITCZ extends
from 05N15W to 06N23W where a surface trough disrupts the flow.
The surface trough extends from 09N23W to 2N25W.  The ITCZ
continues from 05N26W to 03N30W to the coast of South America
near 02N51W.  Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from Cape Canaveral
Florida near 29N81W to SE Louisiana near 30N89W.  The front is
void of precipitation.  10-20 kt E to SE surface flow is over
the Gulf south of the front.  Strongest surface gradient and
winds are over the western Gulf west of 90W.  In the upper
levels, a short wave trough is over the western Gulf with axis
along 98W. Upper level diffluence east of the wave axis is
producing scattered moderate convection from 20N-32N between 90W-
96W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the front to weaken,
however, the upper level short wave trough will move east and
increase convection over the eastern Gulf and Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered over north Colombia near 09N76W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N-10N between
75W-80W.  Similar convection is over the SW Caribbean from 09N-
13N between 80W-85W. More scattered moderate to strong
convection is inland over east Nicaragua and east Honduras
between 83W-85W. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea
with strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia. Mostly
fair weather is over the remainder of the Caribbean.  Expect
over the next 24 hours for a surface trough over the Atlantic to
advect showers into the Windward Islands.  Also expect an upper
level short wave to produce convection over the Yucatan
Peninsula and the NW Caribbean.

HISPANIOLA...

Skies have cleared across most of the island today with some
high clouds moving across the southern portion of the Dominican
Republic. Expect possible showers in the evening hours due to
daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N70W to Cape
Canaveral Florida near 29N81W.  Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the front. A prefrontal trough extends from 28N71W to the
Bahamas at 23N74W.  A 1034 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 35N36W producing fair weather. Of note in the
upper levels, a short wave trough is over the western Atlantic
with axis along 70W.  Upper level diffluence east of the wave
axis is producing isolated moderate convection north of 24N
between 61W-70W. Expect in 24 hours for the front to move
east to 31N60W with showers.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
Formosa
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