[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to persist to
near gale to gale force over the next 24 hours near the African
coast for the area of Agadir. Please see the Meteo-France high
seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine,
Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and enters the
east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 11N19W where a surface
trough disrupts the flow. The surface trough extends from 10N21W
to 3N21W. The ITCZ extends from 5N25W along 3N34W 3N47W to
inland over South America near 3N51W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are north of 2N to the southwest coast of
Africa east of 4W across the Prime Meridian and within 90/120 NM
either side of the ITCZ between 25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper low is over the east Canada and the NE CONUS into
the west Atlantic north of 30N. This upper low is supporting a
cold front that extends from the west Atlantic across Florida
then dips south into the Gulf of Mexico just south of Naples to
26N85W where it dissipates to 27N87W. Mostly dry air covers the
east Gulf limiting any shower activity with this front. A
shortwave upper trough is inland over Mexico with a second upper
trough from central Texas to northeast Mexico. This is inducing
an upper ridge from the east Bay of Campeche to the lower
Mississippi Valley. This upper ridge is providing diffluence
aloft to generate scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms west
of a line from Louisiana near 29N30W to Veracruz Mexico. The
cold front will continue to dissipate over the Gulf through
today. A surface ridge over the SE CONUS will shift east Tuesday
and Wednesday allowing return flow over the west Gulf to spread
across the remainder of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low amplitude upper trough covers western Caribbean west of
78W. A surface trough is over the northwest Caribbean extending
from 19N85W to inland over Honduras to near 15N86W with
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 17N-19N west of
83W to the trough axis. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
are in the southwest Caribbean southwest of a line from
Nicaragua near 12N84W along 12N81W to Panama near 9N80W. A weak
surface trough is over Haiti and the Windward Passage extending
from the Turks and Caicos near 22N72W to 18N74W. An upper ridge
anchored east of Trinidad covers the remainder of the Caribbean
drawing upper moisture from over Central America to across the
east portion of the Dominican Republic, the Mona Passage, and
western Puerto Rico. The remainder of the Caribbean is under
mostly clear skies this morning. Surface ridge over the west
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the
Caribbean through midweek with the strongest winds over the
central Caribbean.

HISPANIOLA...

Skies have cleared across most of the island this morning with
some high clouds moving across the far east portion of the
Dominican Republic. Near zonal westerly flow aloft will move
across the island later this morning with an upper trough moving
across the island by early Thursday. Lingering moisture will
persist through midweek and could generate showers/afternoon
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large upper low is over the east Canada and the NE CONUS into
the west Atlantic north of 30N. This upper low is supporting a
cold front that extends into the west Atlantic near 32N70W to
29N78W where it continues as a warm front inland over Florida
near Daytona Beach to 17N81.5W where it again becomes cold to
just south of Naples and into the Gulf of Mexico. A weak
shortwave upper trough is supporting a surface trough that
extends from 31N65W along 27N71W to the Bahamas near 23N73W.
Clusters of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are within
120/150 NM east of the surface trough. A second weak shortwave
upper trough is supporting a second surface trough that extends
from 28N48W along 25N49W to 22N51W. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored well
north of the discussion area. The cold front will continue
moving east through today. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front through midweek.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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