[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NEAR GALE TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NW AFRICA IN THE
AREA OF AGADIR IS SCHEDULED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE
FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/
PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N15W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N25W TO E OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 4N34W THEN RESUMES
NEAR 4N37W 3N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
ABOVE EXTENDS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 3N-8N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 11N50W TO 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N E OF 20W TO ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 36W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
AND W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY N OF 26N
BETWEEN 87W-92W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS HONDURAS AND
CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN EAST OF 70W. WEDGE BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES IS A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW/CENTRAL ATLC JUST E
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO E PANAMA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W/65W FROM 11N-16N AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NE OF LINE FROM 12N62W TO 17N67W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 80W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
TO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INCREASING
TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO W PANAMA. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN OUT BY FRI
EVENING. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS N AND S OF THE ISLAND COULD CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
TO JUST N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 28N77W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
32N70W AND EXTENDS W ALONG THE N GULF OF MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS MOVING NW ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N72W TO
28N75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N70W
ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 19N-25N. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N36W. THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE NW WATERS FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL WATERS OF SAT WITH ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT. THE W
ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH
FRI WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA
WILL DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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