[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW
THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 13/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE
THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN...AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 06N16W AND 04N21W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N21W TO 05N33W 04N42W 03N48W. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 33W/34W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 04N23W 05N31W 07N37W 08N40W 08N45W 08N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR 32N69W...TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KGHB...KEIR

IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT...KGRY.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KEHC...KGUL...
KATP...AND KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY...IFR IN PORT ISABEL. MVFR FROM
FALFURRIAS TO THE AREA OF BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON.
LIFR AT BAY CITY. MVFR FROM BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TO JASPER.
IFR AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT. MVFR ELSEWHERE FROM THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES TO
HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN
AREA. LIFR IN LAFAYETTE. IFR IN NEW IBERIA AND GALLIANO. LIFR
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IFR AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION JOINT RESERVE BASE IN NEW ORLEANS. MVFR AT THE
LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI...LIGHT RAIN IN
GULFPORT. LIFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR IN PARTS OF THE
MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA...MIXED WITH MVFR ALSO. LIFR IN GULF
SHORES...EVERGREEN...AND AT THE CAIRNS ARMY FIELD IN FORT
RUCKER. FLORIDA...LIFR FROM MARIANNA WESTWARD...AND IN PERRY.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 16N74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N77W...AND TO PANAMA ALONG 80W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 29N72W 22N73W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
23N67W 19N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 73W... MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 70W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CUTTING
ACROSS HAITI MOSTLY...AND POSSIBLY COVERING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ALSO...DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY DISAPPEARS DURING THE
START OF DAY TWO. EXPECT WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. DAY ONE WILL END WITH VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTIONS. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY
WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHEAST...AND THE EAST. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N25W
TO 10N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W
EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 31N39W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
THE 29N72W 22N73W SURFACE TROUGH WESTWARD. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR
32N69W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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