[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N13W AND 04N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
04N16W TO 04N24W AND 03N27W...AND FROM 07N37W TO 08N40W AND
08N43W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD.
A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 06N36W 04N39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N
TO 06N BETWEEN 10W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
60W. ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
TROUGHS IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
12N95W...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AND
BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR 32N68W...INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KGHB.

IFR CONDITIONS...KEIR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KGUL...
AND KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR IN PORT ISABEL. MVFR IN EDINBURG. MVFR FALFURRIAS TO
PORT LAVACA. IFR IN BAY CITY. LIFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON.
MVFR IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES.
LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA.
IFR IN NEW IBERIA. MVFR IN BOOTHVILLE. IFR AND MVFR ALL AROUND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN GULFPORT. LIFR IN
PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN
AREA. LIFR IN GULF SHORES AND IN EVERGREEN. MVFR IN ENTERPRISE
AND DOTHAN. FLORIDA...LIFR IN MILTON AND CRESTVIEW. IFR IN MARY
ESTHER...VALPARAISO...AND DESTIN. MVFR IN PARTS OF THE PANAMA
CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W 25N69W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/ACROSS PARTS
OF HAITI...TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF PANAMA. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N63W AND 30N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 30N66W TO 27N67W AND 23N71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 79W EASTWARD.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 62W AND
76W...MOVING NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 72W.

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT
TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...
VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600
FEET...MVFR. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...A CLOUD
CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800 FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MORE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...AND IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE END OF DAY TWO. WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. MORE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH
OF DAY TWO...DISSIPATING EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERLY WIND FLOW AT
THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE EVENTUALLY WILL BUILD INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH.
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W
TO 27N27W...TO A 25N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N44W
AND 10N51W. THE TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS
INLAND IN AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM
50W EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N58W-TO-23N71W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURFACE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N50W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE 32N58W-23N71W FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 32N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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