[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N14W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N14W TO 05N21W AND 06N28W...04N33W AND 05N41W.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 09N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT
IS CLOSE TO THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
12N95W...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AND
BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR 32N74W...INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KGLS.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...
KGUL...KHQI...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY FROM HARLINGEN WESTWARD. IFR IN
THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA...MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...INCLUDING IN VICTORIA...AND
BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...IN GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR. MVFR FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES TO CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE.
LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR
CONDITIONS WERE BEING EXPERIENCED IN GULF SHORES DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...WITH THE VISIBILITY REACHING 10 MILES DURING THE
LAST OBSERVATION. FLORIDA...IFR IN CRESTVIEW.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N54W-TO-23N68W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N75W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N77W...AND SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PANAMA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N62W TO 31N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N65W TO
30N67W 26N70W AND 22N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 79W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 62W AND 75W...MOVING NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT
TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 11/0000
UTC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA AT
11/0000 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 30000 FEET. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA
ROMANA...RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE NEARBY. PUNTA CANA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 8000
FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MORE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...AND IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE END OF DAY TWO. WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. MORE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH
OF DAY TWO...DISSIPATING EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERLY WIND FLOW AT
THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE EVENTUALLY WILL BUILD INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH.
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W
TO 27N28W...TO 19N40W 12N47W. THE TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT NOW IS INLAND IN AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N65W-TO-22N71W SURFACE
TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N48W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE 31N65W-22N71W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
32N74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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