[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 07N12W...CONTINUING TO 05N15W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N15W AND THEN EXTENDS TO 05N26W...IT
CONTINUES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N30W TO 05N39W...THEN W
OF A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH FROM 03N45W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 21W AND 35W AND W
OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRES CENTERS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO THE FAR WESTERN
GULF. LOW PRES ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W
...THUS GENERATING A TIGHTER GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS WITHIN 260 NM OFF THE COASTLINE FROM TAMPICO TO
MATAMOROS MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY THE LAST SCATTEROMETER PASS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
AXIS FROM 23N93W TO 19N95W. FRESH SE FLOW IS E OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WIND PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE
INFLOW FROM THE EPAC WATERS BY SW FLOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW AND NE BASIN WHILE LOW AND
MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU...FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS FROM THE SW N
ATLC...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA. E OF THIS FEATURE...A
RIDGE ALOFT GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 75W...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG WITH LIFTING GENERATED BY
THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI AS INDICATED BY GOES
LIGHTING DENSITY DATA. RIDGING ALOFT AND STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE...A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA
AND LOWER PRESS ANCHORED OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND FROM S OF
HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...EXCEPT OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS FROM THE SW N
ATLC...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA. E OF THIS FEATURE...A
RIDGE ALOFT GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI AS
INDICATED BY GOES LIGHTING DENSITY DATA. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO NEAR
27N67W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO SURFACE TROUGH TO NE COASTAL
WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN
ELONGATED LOW AND RIDGING TO THE E SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF
NE HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE AND OFF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.
THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT REMNANTS IS DOMINATED
BY RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N13W TO 26N22W IN THE FAR NE ATLC WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TO A SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W-
NW AROUND THE SW N ATLC RIDGE THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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