[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 07N16W AND 05N23W. THE
ITCZ IS ALONG 04N27W 04N30W 03N36W 02N38W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 39W/40W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 26W/27W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 21W AND
26W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 08N
BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03S TO
02N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF BRAZIL. ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS CLOSE TO
THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR 30N74W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N64W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KGLS.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...AND KGUL.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN WESLACO...FALFURRIAS...AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT ROCKPORT. LIFR IN ALICE...AND AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE. MVFR IN VICTORIA...PORT
LAVACA...AND PALACIOS. IFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE
JACKSON. IFR IN GALVESTON. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND
JASPER. MVFR FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
SMALLER COMMUNITIES TO CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...IFR IN
LAFAYETTE. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...
THUNDER IN THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN MILTON. LIGHT
RAIN IN DESTIN.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N58W-TO-20N70W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TOWARD THE
GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA...AND IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT
TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA...THUNDER AND FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE CUTTING ACROSS HAITI FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE DAY FOR DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO 28N20W...TO 28N30W AND 30N34W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS
THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 44W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
15N53W...NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE DISSIPATING EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N64W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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