[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF GUINEA-
BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W...TO 08N16W AND 07N17W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N17W TO 03N21W 03N23W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
32W...TO 01S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
03N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 02W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
02W AND 08W...FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 13W AND 38W...FROM THE
COAST TO 07N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN
56W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W
WESTWARD...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...SPAN THE AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 10N83W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT TRAILS THE STATIONARY FRONT...ABOUT
180 NM TO THE WEST...FROM 23N NORTHWARD...ONLY IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
22N68W 27N66W BEYOND 32N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA AND
SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 1.60 IN BERMUDA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPAN
THE AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN FALFURRIAS. ALICE HAS HAD IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE LAST HOUR. FOR THE REST OF TEXAS...AND FROM LOUISIANA TO
FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N73W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND TO 10N83W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM
17N TO 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS TO
THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTIAGO...A CLOUD
CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF
MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW BECAUSE THE TROUGH REMAINS
STATIONARY...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AND WEST WIND FLOW. A
TROUGH STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA TO
HISPANIOLA DURING PARTS OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. PART OF THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS RELATED
TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALSO IS
RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. DAY TWO
STARTS WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE WIND WILL BE COMING FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO WILL BE RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CANARY
ISLANDS TO 24N30W 20N40W 15N50W AND 07N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N NORTHWARD BETWEEN FROM THE
COAST TO 07N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
65W EASTWARD. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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