[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO
08N16W AND 06N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N18W TO 01N33W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 08N13W TO 06N30W 05N40W 05N50W...AND FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W
WESTWARD...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...SPAN THE AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT PASSES THROUGH
32N67W...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 10N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT TRAILS THE STATIONARY FRONT...ONLY
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N72W TO 25N75W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W...INCLUDING
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND IN PARTS OF HAITI. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.60 IN
BERMUDA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPAN
THE AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO HONDURAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N74W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND TO 10N82W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W...INCLUDING
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND IN PARTS OF HAITI.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS TO
THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 07/0100
UTC...SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 2500 FEET...AND A CLOUD
CEILING WITH BASES AT 5000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BARAHONA AT 07/0000 UTC...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR.
SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING
WITH BASES AT 30000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...30000 FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET AND A
CLOUD CEILING AT 30000 FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF
MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW BECAUSE THE TROUGH REMAINS
STATIONARY...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AND WEST WIND FLOW. A
TROUGH STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA TO
HISPANIOLA DURING PARTS OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. PART OF THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS RELATED
TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALSO IS
RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. DAY TWO
STARTS WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE WIND WILL BE COMING FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO WILL BE RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 27N20W TO
21N33W 15N42W 12N52W AND 08N59W. DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
65W EASTWARD. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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