[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N18W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W TO 2N29W THEN RESUMES S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
FROM 3N31W TO S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 3S34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-14W...WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
BETWEEN 19W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE E CONUS/NW
ATLC. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
CONUS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF
27N BETWEEN 87W-96W WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO
REPORT PATCHES OF FOG N OF 26N W OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N95W ALONG 26N96W TO 21N97W.
LOCALLY DENSE HAZE/FOG WILL DISPERSE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NW GULF EARLY MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON EVENING AND FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE NIGHT THEN PASS E
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 77W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING
S OVER PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-73W INCLUDING THE S COAST
OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 66W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL LOW ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 11N73W TO 12N78W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON ACROSS THE WATERS N OF NW
VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF
HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH TUE INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATE WED.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E ON
WED. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W
ALONG 26N50W 23N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR 32N58W ALONG 29N63W 27N67W TO 28N71W. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N53W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 26N57W TO 22N58W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 28N38W TO A
WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 25N38W TO 21N40W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN
53W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC MON. A NE TO SW RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLC
WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL
FLORIDA EARLY MON THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ON
TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA ON TUE
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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