[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W TO 06N15W TO 04N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
EXTENDS TO 03N25W TO 02N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 06W AND 20W AND FROM 01S
TO 09S BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
BASIN NEAR MONDAY SUNRISE DOMINATE THE WESTERN BASIN WHILE
RIDGING CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC WATERS INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OBSERVED IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND PAC TROPICAL WATERS...RESPECTIVELY...SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND WITHIN 60 NM OFF
ITS COAST. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS E TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N
CONTINUE TO REPORT DENSE FOG CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN
3 MILES. THE GOES IFR PRODUCT EXTENDS THIS REGION OF FOG S TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES. A MIX OF FOG
AND SMOKE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE REGIONS/WESTERN BASIN. WITHIN
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION FRESH TO STRONG E
TO SE WINDS ARE REPORTED. SIMILAR WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED OFF
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE OVER
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EAST OF 68W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER CENTRAL HAITI AND SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE HONDURAS COAST AND OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HAITI
AND SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MON SUNRISE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N61W TO
27N71W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS TO 30N76W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 1016 MB SURFACE
LOW IS NEAR 25N57W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N54W
THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO 22N60W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY MON AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N37W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 20N40W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-SW TO NEAR
24N40W BY MON EVENING. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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