[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N16W to 16N16W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb low noted in global model fields
in the vicinity of 05N13W and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity offshore of the African coast from 05N-09N between
10W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between
10W-19W.

Tropical wave extends from 03N35W to 12N32W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with
broad 700 mb troughing between 31W-38W. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 01N50W to 08N50W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains low amplitude and its position is based on long-
duration IR satellite imagery extrapolation. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 10N73W to 19N72W moving W at 20 kt. The
wave is located on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge
anchored over the central Atlc in the vicinity of 20N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 71W-76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
04N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N23W to 07N34W to 05N52W. No significant deep convection is
occurring outside of the convection associated with the tropical
waves listed above.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Northerly flow prevails over the basin this evening between
troughing over the SW North Atlc and an anticyclonic circulation
centered over northern Mexico near 27N102W. The overall stability
supports a 1016 mb high centered across the central Gulf near
26N88W with generally light to moderate anticyclonic flow occurring
at this time which is expected through Tuesday. Thereafter the
ridging will slide eastward and southerly return flow across the
western Gulf will increase to moderate to fresh breeze levels
through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the central Caribbean
near 16N78W with water vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and
stable conditions aloft generally S of 19N. Upper level troughing
is noted to the north with axis extending from over a portion of
the SW North Atlc near 25N73W W-SW to over Cuba and is providing
increased moisture and cloudiness across the Greater Antilles this
evening. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within
120 nm S of Cuba and across portions of Hispaniola. Otherwise...
scattered showers and tstms are noted across the SW Caribbean S of
12N as a result of the close proximity to the monsoon trough axis
analyzed along 09N. Trade winds remain strongest between 63W-76W
in the range of fresh to strong due to a strengthened pressure
gradient while the remainder of the waters are within moderate to
fresh levels. The existing gradient will gradually slide westward
through Thursday as ridging builds from the central Atlc to the SW
North Atlc region north of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
across the island due to the northern extent of a tropical wave
along 73W and an upper level trough axis extending from 25N73W
W-SW to over Cuba. The tropical wave will continue westward while
the upper level troughing will linger through Tuesday night into
early Wednesday when the weather is expected to improve and
chances of precipitation become less.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from 32N62W SW to over
the central Bahamas and Cuba supporting an area of increased
cloudiness and scattered showers and isolated tstms from 19N-24N
between 66W-78W...and within 150 nm either side of a line from
32N59W to 24N66W. West of the trough axis however...a dry and
stable airmass prevails with the exception of a cold front
analyzed from 32N67W to 31N74W to the South Carolina coast near
33N80W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 30N-32N
between 63W-69W...including Bermuda this evening. Farther
east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered
near 35N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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