[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis along
16W south of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a large area
of low level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 10W-19W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
near 33W from 03N to 13N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is
embedded in a large moist environment as noted by SSMI composite
TPW imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb level.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
near 48W from 00N to 08N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low
amplitude and is embedded in a moderate moist environment. No
associated convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 70W
from 10N to 19N, moving W at 20 kt. A moist environment from the
surface to 850 mb is indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery.
Satellite imagery shows broad low level turning over the central
Caribbean. A well defined 700 mb trough axis is further west
along 80W.  Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola,
and over Venezuela, but not over the central Caribbean.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N20W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 08N33W to
06N48W to the coast of South America near 05N53W. There is no
additional convection that is not associated with the tropical
waves.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico near
25N88W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the Gulf. A
surface trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N90W to
18N91W. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is
centered over N Mexico at 24N106W. A diffluent environment is
over the N Gulf north of 25N. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are north of 27N between 81W-93W. Similar convection
is inland over south Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for
the surface high to remain over the central Gulf. Also expect
the area of upper level diffluence and associated convection to
shift east to the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. 10-25
kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with
strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia. Scattered
moderate convection is over Cuba, and Hispaniola. Further south,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
Venezuela, north Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and the SW
caribbean south of 11N. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection
is over eastern Honduras. In the upper levels, an upper level
ridge is over the western and central Caribbean with a diffluent
area over the Leeward Islands. Strong subsidence remains over
the central Caribbean from 12N-17N between 60W-83W. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the higher
elevations of Hispaniola due to the tropical wave and upper
level diffluence. Expect more convection over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 26N75W.
A surface trough extends over the western Atlantic from 31N62W
to the south Bahamas at 23N74W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm east of the trough axis. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the eastern Atlantic near 35N31W. Of note in the
upper levels, the base of a very large upper level trough is
over the western Atlantic north of 25N between 55W-75W with a
diffluent area north of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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