[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 25.2N 87.4W at 06/0900 UTC
or about 315 nm west-southwest of Tampa, Florida and about 300
nm south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida moving north-
northeast at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Numerous strong convection is within a 45 nm radius of 24N85W.
Scattered to numerous moderate/isolated strong to scattered
strong convection covers the remainder of the northwest
Caribbean west of a line from Honduras near 16N87W to across
Cuba near 22N83W and in the Gulf of Mexico south of 27N between
81W-86W. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
23W/24W from 7N-11N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS
model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
59W/60W from 8N-15N moving west-northwest near 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS
model, a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly observed on satellite
imagery as an inverted trough. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 8N-15N between 57W and the
Lesser Antilles.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W along 8N16W to 7N19W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 6N37W 8N52W into South America near 8N60W.
Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is convection is
from the ITCZ to 11N between 47W-55W. Clusters of scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection are within 90 nm south of
the monsoon trough between 16W-19W and within 45 nm either side
of the ITCZ between 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern this morning is T.S. Colin in the east Gulf.
See special features above. A broad upper trough covers the
central CONUS extending a narrow upper trough across east Texas
and most of Mexico with an upper low near 25N101W. The broad
upper trough is supporting a stationary front that enters the
northwest Gulf near Galveston, Texas along the Texas coast to
25N97W. A weak surface trough extends from the Louisiana coast
near 29N92W to 27N94W. Isolated showers are north of 26N west of
91W. An upper ridge anchored in the northwest Caribbean covers
the east Gulf of Mexico and is providing diffluent environment
to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the remainder of the Gulf east of 90W. Colin
will move northeast across the northeast Gulf through today and
this evening crossing northeast Florida tonight. Winds and seas
will quickly diminish across the east Gulf Tuesday and
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern this morning is the showers/thunderstorms
associated with T.S. Colin over the far west Caribbean. An upper
ridge is anchored over the northwestern Caribbean near 20N85W
extending across west Cuba and the south Florida peninsula into
the west Atlantic and covering the east Gulf of Mexico. An upper
trough over the west-central Atlantic extends over the east
Caribbean east of 72W generating isolated showers over Puerto
Rico. The easterly trade winds coupled with the approaching
tropical wave are generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the far southeast Caribbean south of 15N east
of 66W to over the Windward Islands. Strong southerly winds in
the northwest Caribbean west of 83W associated with T.S. Colin
will gradually diminish today. Fresh to occasionally strong
winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean near Colombia
and Venezuela through tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently skies have cleared across most the island with the
exception of some Isolated showers over far southwest Haiti.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms could develop during the
evening hours today and Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends across Cuba and the
Florida peninsula into the west Atlantic covering the area west
of 72W. An upper trough extends from 25N63W across the Greater
Antilles to over the east Caribbean with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 19N-23N between 63W-68W. A broad
upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold
front that extends through 32N18W to 29N25W then dissipates to
28N30W. A weakening surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high in the east-central Atlantic
near 24N43W. T.S. Colin will cross over northeast Florida this
tonight emerging into the west Atlantic early Tuesday then be
off the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday evening. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish starting Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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