[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 24.2N 87.6W at 06/0600 UTC
or about 355 nm southwest of Tampa, Florida and about 355 nm
south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida moving north at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 18N-22N between 86W-88W including northeast
Yucatan peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection covers the remainder of the northwest Caribbean west
of a line from Honduras near 16N86W to across Cuba near 23N83W
and in the Gulf of Mexico south of 27N between 81W-86W. Please
see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
21W/22W from 6N-11N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS
model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
57W/58W from 8N-14N moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS
model, a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly seen on satellite
imagery as an inverted trough. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 10N-15N between 52W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 9N13W to 7N17W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 6N24W 7N40W 8N52W into South America near 7N58W. Scattered
moderate/strong convection is within 60 nm of line from 6N12W to
8N18W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
the ITCZ to 10N between 46W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern tonight is T.S. Colin in the south-central
Gulf. See special features above. A broad upper trough covers
the central CONUS extending a narrow upper trough across east
Texas and most of Mexico with an upper low near 25N101W. The
broad upper trough is supporting a stationary front that enters
the northwest Gulf over Texas near 29N95W to 25N97W. Scattered
showers are west of the front to the coast of Texas. A weak
surface trough extends from the Louisiana coast near 29N92W to
26N94W with isolated showers within 60 nm east of the trough. An
upper ridge anchored in the northwest Caribbean covers the east
Gulf of Mexico and is providing diffluent environment to
generate scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
over the remainder of the Gulf east of 90W. Colin will will move
north to northeast across the Gulf through Monday evening
crossing northeast Florida Monday night. Winds and seas will
quickly diminish across the east Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern tonight is the strong convection associated
with T.S. Colin over the far west Caribbean. An upper ridge is
anchored over the northwestern Caribbean near 21N84W extending
across Cuba and the Florida peninsula covering the east Gulf of
Mexico and the west Atlantic. An upper trough over the west-
central Atlantic extends over the east Caribbean east of 70W
generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
north of 15N between 64W-72W including Puerto Rico and Haiti.
The easterly trade winds are generating scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms over the far southeast Caribbean
south of 14N east of 64W to over the Windward Islands. Strong
south to southeast winds over the far northwest Caribbean west
of 82W will gradually diminish Monday and Monday night. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds are expected in the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia and Venezuela through Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are across portions of Haiti tonight due to the
upper trough that extends from the west-central Atlantic across
the east Caribbean. These showers will continue through early
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms could still develop during the
evening hours Monday and Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends across Cuba and the
Florida peninsula covering the west Atlantic west of 70W. An
upper trough extends through 32N55W along 27N63W across the
Greater Antilles to over the east Caribbean with isolated
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 22N between
65W-68W. A broad upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is
supporting a cold front that extends through 32N20W to 28N34W. A
surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored
by a 1023 mb high in the east-central Atlantic near 26N41W and a
extending ridge axis west to 28N76W. T.S. Colin will cross over
northeast Florida Monday evening then be north of the discussion
area later Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish starting Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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