[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extending along
30W from 2N-10N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb inverted trough as depicted on the
GFS model and is embedded within a low amplitude moist
environment. Scattered moderate convection is from 4N-8N between
26W and 32W.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 58W south of
13N to inland Guyana in South America moving west near 20 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded in a moderate moist
environment from the surface to 850 mb as depicted by CIRA layer
precipitable water imagery. Strong deep layer wind shear on this
region SE of the Windward Islands limits the convection to
isolated showers south of 13N between 52W-62W.

Tropical wave is along 72W from the south Caribbean near 13N to
over NW Venezuela and NE Colombia moving west near 25 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a moderate moist
environment, however strong deep layer wind shear hinder deep
convection in the central and SE Caribbean.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 8N13W to 7N17W. The ITCZ begins near 7N17W and
continues to east of a tropical wave near 5N28W then resumes west
of the wave near 4N32W to 3N44W to northern Brazil near 3N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 NM either side of the
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high near 29N84W
continues to dominate the E Gulf waters and provides gentle
anticyclonic flow E of 87W. Low pressure along Mexico continues to
extend E into the western Gulf where gentle to moderate SE wind
is observed. The exception is off the western Yucatan Peninsula
where the gradient between a surface trough along 91W and the
ridge to the NE support fresh NE flow. CIRA layer precipitable
water imagery from surface to 850 mb and water vapor imagery show
mostly dry conditions in the region, which is sustaining fair
weather this morning. The center of high pressure will dissipate
by Thursday afternoon and SE gentle to moderate flow will dominate
across the basin through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough extends along the eastern CONUS seaboard with a
base reaching S into the western Caribbean. To the east, an upper
ridge extends N from South America covering remainder basin. Diffluence
aloft between these features along with abundant moisture in the
region support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms in the
central Caribbean between 70W and 84W being the E Pacific monsoon
trough the main driver of the convection in the SW basin. The
latest passes of scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds S
of Cuba, east of Puerto Rico and Belize and S of 14N between 65W
and 75W. Moderate to fresh trades are present elsewhere. The area
of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean will
expand NW to Jamaica southern adjacent waters by Thursday sunrise
and will continue to extend farther NW over the remainder weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the Island along with a
diffluent environment aloft generated by an upper trough W of 70W
and ridging to the east continue to support scattered to isolated
showers across the entire Hispaniola and coastal waters. This
upper level scenario will prevail the next two days, thus
enhancing showers through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough extends along the eastern CONUS seaboard with a
base reaching S into the western Caribbean. To the east, an
upper ridge generates a diffluent environment that along with
moisture in the region support scattered moderate convection
between 66W and 74W. A broad upper trough over the NE Atlantic
continue to support a weakening cold front that extends from
30N22W to 26N26W where it starts to dissipate. The remainder of
the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a pair
of 1025 mb highs, one near 30N55W and the other near 30N46W. The
upper trough over the west Atlantic will persist through the end
of the week. A weak surface ridge will build from Bermuda to
northeast Florida tonight through Thursday then shift south of
Friday and extend along 29N starting Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net