[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extending along
30W from 2N-9N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb inverted trough as depicted on the
GFS model and is embedded within a low amplitude moist environment.
Scattered moderate convection is from 5N-7N between 26W and 30W.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 58W south of
15N to inland Guyana in South America moving west near 20 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded in a moderate moist
environment as depicted by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery
from surface to 850 mb and total precipitable water imagery.
Strong deep layer wind shear on this region SE of the Windward
Islands limits the convection to isolated showers south of 13N between
50W-64W.

Tropical wave is along 71W from the south Caribbean near 13N to
over Venezuela and eastern Colombia moving west near 25 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a low to moderate
moist environment that along with a strong deep layer environment
hinder deep convection in the central and eastern Caribbean.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 7N17W. The ITCZ begins near 7N17W and
continues to east of a tropical wave near 6N28W then resumes west
of the wave near 4N31W to 3N43W to northern Brazil near 2N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 8N-13N E of 18W and within
120 NM either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high near 28N84W continues
to dominate the eastern Gulf waters and provides gentle
anticyclonic flow E of 87W. Low pressure along Mexico continues to
extend E into the remainder Gulf where gentle to moderate SE wind
is observed. The exception is off the western Yucatan Peninsula
where the gradient between a surface trough and the ridge to the
NE support fresh NE flow. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery
from surface to 850 mb and water vapor imagery show dry conditions
in the region, which is sustaining fair weather tonight. The
center of high pressure will dissipate by Thursday afternoon and
SE gentle to moderate flow will dominate across the basin through
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough extends along the eastern CONUS seaboard with a
base reaching S into the western Caribbean. To the east, an upper
ridge extends N from South America covering remainder basin. Diffluence
aloft between these features along with abundant moisture in the
region support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms S of Cuba
to 18N between 77W and 83W. Scattered moderate convection is over
the central basin N of 13N while the monsoon trough extending from
Costa Rica to Colombia support heavy showers and thunderstorms S
of 13N between 72W and 78W. Scattered showers are in the remainder
SW Caribbean. The latest passes of scatterometer data show fresh
to strong winds S of Colombia where the area of convection is,
east of Puerto Rico and Belize and S of 14N between 65W and 75W.
Moderate to fresh trades are present elsewhere. The area of fresh
to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean will expand NW to
Jamaica southern adjacent waters by Thursday sunrise and will
continue to extend farther NW over the remainder weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the Island along with a
diffluent environment aloft generated by an upper trough W of 70W
and ridging to the east continue to support scattered to isolated
showers across the entire Hispaniola and coastal waters. This
upper level scenario will prevail the next two days, thus
enhancing showers through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough extends along the eastern CONUS seaboard with a
base reaching S into the western Caribbean. To the east, an upper
ridge generates a diffluent environment that along with moisture
in the region support scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection between 65W and 79W. A broad upper trough over the NE
Atlantic continue to support a cold front that extends from 30N22W
to 23N33W where it starts to dissipate. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb
high near 31N47W. The upper trough over the west Atlantic will
persist through the end of the week. A weak surface ridge will
build from Bermuda to northeast Florida tonight through Thursday
then shift south of Friday and extend along 29N starting Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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