[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic from 11N25W
to 02N27W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is well depicted at the
700mb level. The wave is however engulfed by Saharan dry air and
dust, which is hindering deep convection except along the ITCZ.

Tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic from 15N53W
to 05N54W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate
moist environment from the surface to 700 mb according to CIRA
layer precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection
is within 90 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave is over the central Caribbean from 15N68W to
05N68W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a high moist
environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer
precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough is over western Africa and enters the
Atlantic near 09N13W and continues to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N18W to 04N26W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave
at 04N29W and extends to 03N40W to the coast of South America at
04N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03N-07N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-04N between 30W-52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is west of a tropical wave to Trinidad from 06N-11N
between 56W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging from the Atlantic is producing 10-15 kt SE
flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows isolated
moderate convection over the far western Gulf from 20N-30N
between 91W-99W. Scattered showers are also over South Florida
and the Straits of Florida south of 27N east of 82W. The
remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over northern Mexico. Upper level
diffluence east of this trough is enhancing convection over the
western Gulf west of 90W. Another upper level trough is centered
over the Florida along 80W. Little change is forecast for the
next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands and another
is over the central Caribbean. See above. A 1008 mb low is
centered over N colombia near 09N72W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 09N-13N
between 75W-84W. Further north, isolated moderate convection is
over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. 10-20 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. In the Upper Levels, an upper level
trough is over the Caribbean west of 72W. An upper level ridge
is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect the tropical
waves to move west over the next 24 hours with convection. Also
expect more upper level diffluence over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola mostly
due to upper level diffluence. Expect little change over the
next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large 1026 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N47W. A
cold front is over the eastern Atlantic from 31N25W to 27N30W to
25N38W. A prefrontal trough extends from 30N24W to 24N36W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and trough. Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is centered over
Florida along 80W. Diffluence east of the trough is producing
scattered moderate convection from 20N-30N between 65W-70W.
Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of the cold front to
extend from 31N20W to 29N23W with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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