[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the eastern Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W
from 2N-11N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is engulfed by Saharan
dry air and dust, which is hindering deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 52W from 4N-
14N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of
deep moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 5N-10N
between 51W and 57W.

Tropical wave is SW of the Windward Islands with axis along 62W
moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of deep
moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
7N-11N between 57W and 63W.

Tropical wave over Central America with axis along 87W moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
and thunderstorms are affecting NW Nicaragua, Costa Rica and
Panama, including adjacent waters in the east Pacific.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W to 6N19W. The ITCZ begins near 6N19W and
then continues along 2N30W to 2N40W to South America near 2N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface high pressure prevails across the central and
eastern Gulf being anchored by a 1015 mb high near 28N84W while
low pressure along Mexico extends to the western Gulf. Gentle
variable wind is E of 90W while SE gentle to moderate winds
dominate W of 90W. At the middle to upper levels, ridging covering
the Gulf and a trough over the SE CONUS with base extending S into
the Caribbean generate a diffluent environment that support
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection N of 23N W of
94W. Surface ridging will persist through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper trough over the SE CONUS extends across Florida and
then S into the Caribbean W of 70W. A low amplitude upper ridge
extends N from South America and cover the remainder of the
Caribbean. A diffluent environment between this two features
aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and adjacent waters,
including the Mona and Windward passages. Scattered to isolated
showers are over the remainder central and eastern basin.
Similar shower activity is over the SW Caribbean S of 14N being
supported by the E Pacific monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trade
winds are across the eastern basin while light and to moderate
trades are W of 75W. Over the S Central Caribbean, the latest
scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds S of 14N between 65W
and 74W. Winds are expected to increase between Colombia and
Jamaica on Wednesday night then expanding across the west
Caribbean toward Cuba by the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across Hispaniola and
adjacent waters. This activity is driven by moisture in the
region and a diffluent environment aloft. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough over the SE CONUS covers the SW N Atlantic with
a narrow upper ridge to the east. The diffluent area between
these upper features is supporting scattered moderate convection and
isolated thunderstorms S of 30N between 65W-72W. An upper trough
in the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters
the east Atlantic near 30N27W and extends along 26N36W to 26N44W
where it transitions to a surface trough to 30N53W. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 28N27W along 25N32W to 24N38W. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored
by a 1025 mb high near 33N47W. A weak surface ridge will build
from Bermuda to northeast Florida tonight through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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