[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
717 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate south of 12N between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N southward between 63W
and 71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ is along 09N28W 07N40W
07N51W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong from 05N to 12N between 16W and 24W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 13N southward
between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 21N96W in the
southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow spans the area. One trough extends from the
cyclonic center toward the Texas/Louisiana border. A second trough
extends eastward, into the northwestern corner of the Caribbean
Sea, to the waters that are along the southern coast of Cuba,
toward southeastern Cuba. A diurnal surface trough also has been
moving through the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 23N southward between 90W and coastal Mexico.
Isolated moderate elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 28N55W, to
31N75W, across northern Florida, to the upper Texas Gulf of Mexico
coast.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR...none.

IFR...none.

MVFR...KBBF.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Brownsville. IFR in Alice. MVFR in Robstown. MVFR
in Victoria. MVFR in Bay City and Tomball, in Beaumont and in
Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR in the Lake Charles metropolitan area. LIFR
at the Hammond Northshore Regional Airport and in Slidell. MISSISSIPPI:
LIFR in McComb and in the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. Alabama:
LIFR in Evergreen. MVFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview.
Rainshowers and thunder in the Panama City metropolitan area, and
in Apalachicola. MVFR in Tallahassee.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: The southwest wind flow is part of a
comparatively larger area of broad cyclonic wind flow that covers
the Caribbean Sea to the northwest of the line that runs from the
border of Honduras and Nicaragua beyond Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate in the waters that are just off
the coast of southeastern Cuba, and in the Windward Passage.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 16/0000
UTC...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 16/0000
UTC: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day
one will consist of SW to W wind flow at the start, followed by NW
to W wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center, that is in the
central Caribbean Sea, will be moving westward during day one.
Day two will consist of NW to N, and then N to NE wind flow,
as an inverted trough approaches from the east. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that broad NE wind flow will move across
the area for the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB
shows that day one will consist of an inverted trough moving
across the area. Day two will consist of E to SE wind flow.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough passes through 08N74W, across the Gulf of
Uraba of Colombia, through Panama near 09N81W, beyond southern Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 10N
southward between Colombia and 78W. Isolated moderate elsewhere
from 13N southward between 75W and the coast of Nicaragua.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
the Bahamas northward from 66W westward. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate to the northwest of the line that passes
through 32N57W 24N75W, and to the north of the Bahamas.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through
32N36W to 29N40W, and beyond 32N55W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is near 33N58W. The trough supports a cold front that
passes through 32N35W to 27N46W and 32N54W. The front becomes
stationary from 32N54W to a 1020 MB low pressure center that is
near 33N58W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the line that
passes through 32N33W 26N48W beyond 32N54W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge passes
through 32N37W to 28N39W. Another surface ridge is along 28N55W to
31N75W, across northern Florida, to the upper Texas Gulf of Mexico
coast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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