[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 04N to 11N between 30W and
40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward between 62W
and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W, to 10N28W and 08N35W. The ITCZ is along 07N38W
07N50W 08N53W, to 07N59W in coastal sections of Guyana. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong from 06N to 12N between 15W and 22W, and from 06N to 08N
between 42W and 52W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N
southward between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N96W in the
southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico. One trough extends from
the cyclonic center to the Texas/Louisiana border. A second trough
extends eastward, into the northwestern corner of the Caribbean
Sea, to the waters that are along the southern coast of Cuba,
toward southeastern Cuba. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and within a 30 NM radius of
20N91W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 95W eastward in the Gulf
of Mexico, and off the northwestern coast of Cuba.

A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1020 MB high
pressure center that is near 30N74W, across northern Florida to
28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico, toward the southwestern corner of
the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA: LIFR at the Hammond Northshore
Regional Airport. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR at the Hattiesburg-Laurel
Regional Airport. Alabama: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: IFR in
Crestview.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 18N to 19N between 72W and
73W. Isolated moderate in the waters that are between Haiti,
Jamaica, and southeastern Cuba. The southwest wind flow is part of
a comparatively larger area of broad cyclonic wind flow that
covers the Caribbean Sea from the border of Honduras and Nicaragua
beyond Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 16/0000
UTC...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 16/0000
UTC: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day
one will consist of SW to W wind flow at the start, followed by NW
to W wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center, that is in the
central Caribbean Sea, will be moving westward during day one.
Day two will consist of NW to N, and then N to NE wind flow,
as an inverted trough approaches from the east. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that broad NE wind flow will move across
the area for the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB
shows that day one will consist of an inverted trough moving
across the area. Day two will consist of E to SE wind flow.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough passes through the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia
near 08N77W, through Panama near 09N80W, beyond 10N86W in Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from
07N to 09N between 74W and 76W, and from the coast of Panama to
11N between 79W and 80W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N
southward between 75W and the coast of Nicaragua.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
the Bahamas northward from 66W westward. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to the northwest of the line that passes through
32N57W 26N68W 24N75W, and to the north of the Bahamas.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through
32N36W to 29N40W, and beyond 32N55W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is near 33N57W. The trough supports a cold front that
passes through 32N35W to 27N46W and 32N54W. The front becomes
stationary from 32N54W to a 1020 MB low pressure center that is
near 34N57W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the line that
passes through 32N33W 26N47W beyond 32N54W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends from
a 1023 MB high pressure center that is near 35N24W to 27N38W.
Another surface ridge extends from a 1022 MB high pressure center
that is near 30N56W, to a 1020 MB high pressure center that is
near 30N74W, across northern Florida to 28N88W in the Gulf of
Mexico, toward the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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