[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 18N43W to 06N44W, moving W at 12 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave position was based on a weak 700 mb
inverted trough depicted in the global models. A surge of
moisture follows this wave as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection prevails across
the low center. The lack of deep convection is associated to the
abundant Saharan dust in the environment of this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 20N84W to 08N85W, moving W at 25 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a moist environment from
surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. This wave
shows an outflow boundary traversing the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. Scattered
moderate moderate to isolated strong convection is also
over Central America from 09N-16N between 83W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N17W to 09N28W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N28W to 08N35W to a 1013 mb low at 10N44W to the
coast of South America near 08N59W. Isolated moderate convection
is along the coast of west Africa from 07N-10N between 13W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin along 30N. Gentle
breeze to moderate SE flow is noted on scatterometer imagery. In
the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
Florida Panhandle near 31N87W. Scattered moderate convection is
mostly inland over the north Gulf States from Louisiana to
Florida N of 30N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is inland over the Florida Peninsula, and W Cuba.
Isolated moderate convection is also over the southern Mexico S
of 18N and E of 98W. Expect over the next 24 hours for more
convection to advect to the Bay of Campeche and the central
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean. Please refer to the above
section for more details. 10-25 knot tradewinds are over the
Caribbean with strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of
Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is over Panama, and Costa
Rica. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the SW
Caribbean. Expect the tropical wave along 85W to be the dominate
feature over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is now over western Hispaniola.
Expect over the next 12 hours for this convection to dissipate,
while a new batch of showers advects over eastern Hispaniola
from the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 28N73W.
Scattered showers are over the northern Bahamas from 24N-27N
between 77W-80W. A surface trough is further east from 29N55W to
22N61W. A 1027 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 32N33W
producing fair weather. A cold front is north of the area over
the western Atlantic along 32N between 55W-75W. Expect this
front to move east and remain north of the area over the next 24
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa
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