[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis from 17N42W to a 1013 mb low near 11N42W, moving W near
15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave position was based on a
700 mb inverted trough depicted in the global models. A surge of
moisture follows this wave as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Isolated convection prevails across the low center.
The lack of deep convection is associated to the abundant Saharan
dust in the environment of this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis
from 20N83W to 08N84W, moving W near 20-25 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is embedded within a 700 mb trough depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. This feature
combined with a diffluent flow aloft supports scattered moderate
convection from 10N-21N between 81W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N27W. The ITCZ begins at this point and
continues to 08N40W then resumes W of a tropical wave near 10N44W
to 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave
and surface low, isolated convection is observed within 200 nm on
either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over NE Mexico while another
center is located over the NE Gulf waters near 28N87W. These
features are supporting isolated moderate convection across the
whole basin. At the surface, a ridge extends across the Gulf
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the western Atlantic.
Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic flow
across the whole area. Expect a similar weather pattern through
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate
convection prevails across the southern portion of the basin S of
12N between 76W-83W due to the presence of the Monsoon Trough.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
majority of the basin except between 70W-80W, where fresh to
strong winds are depicted in scatterometer data. These winds are
induced by a tight pressure gradient between the high pressure
over the Atlantic and lower pressures over the southern Caribbean
and South America. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving
W with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies remain clear across the island at this time. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave and low are moving across the central Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow
aloft is supporting isolated showers across the far W Atlantic
mainly W of 76W. To the E; a surface trough extends from 28N54W to
25N55W with no significant convection. The remainder of the basin
is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high near
28N67W and a 1028 mb high near 32N32W. Expect for the wave and low
to continue moving W with little convection. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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