[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia from
Sunday night through Monday morning. These winds will be due to
the tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface
ridge and the lower pressure over South America combined with a
tropical wave that will move across the area Sunday night
through Monday morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N57W to 6N60W moving northwest near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough as seen
on the global models and is embedded within a high amplitude
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-12N
between 36W-40W with clusters of scattered moderate convection
from 5N-12N between 36W-45W.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 68W south of
18N to inland over South America moving west-northwest 20 to 25
kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a low amplitude
700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded
within a surge of deep moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 14N-21N between 62W-70W
including the islands from the Leeward to the Dominican
Republic.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 77W/78W from
Jamaica to Panama moving west near 20 to 25 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global
models and is embedded within a surge of moderate moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 12N between
Colombia and south Nicaragua. This activity is enhanced at the
base of an upper trough that extends across the central
Caribbean and the monsoon trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W along 11N19W to 9N20W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 7N27W to east of the tropical wave near
9N37W, then resumes west of the wave near 8N41W along 6N47W to
South America near 6N58W. Outside the activity associated with
the tropical wave; clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are within 45 nm along the coast of Africa
between 10N-14N, within 120/150 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W-
29W, and from 6N-8N between 55W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is replacing the upper trough over the southeast
CONUS while the upper trough moves into the far west Atlantic.
The upper ridge is anchored over central Texas and extends a
ridge axis across the Mississippi Valley near the Louisiana/
Arkansas border to over the east Gulf to near Havana, Cuba. This
has weakened the surface trough that had persisted across the
north Gulf the last few days. The remnants of the surface trough
extend from south Georgia near 31N83W across the Florida
panhandle into the Gulf along 29N95W to 29N97W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm
southeast of the trough axis to inland over the Florida
Peninsula. The diurnal surface trough extends from 23N94W across
the Bay of Campeche to south Mexico near 18N94W. An upper ridge
anchored in the east Pacific region covers south Mexico and the
Bay of Campeche south of 25N west of 90W. This westerly flow
aloft combined with surface trough are generating scattered
showers and isolated the thunderstorms within 90 nm along the
coast of Mexico from Veracruz to Tuxpan. A surface ridge extends
from the west Atlantic across south Florida to the coast of
Mexico near Tampico. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf
mostly clear skies this afternoon. Surface ridge will persist
through early next week. Weak surface trough will linger across
the northeast Gulf through tonight. A diurnal surface trough
over the Yucatan will return during evening hours, then
dissipate during the early morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low is along the coast of Cuba near 21N75W and extends
an upper trough into the Caribbean covering the area from Puerto
Rico to west Cuba and extending to near 10N76W. The monsoon
trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica along 9N. The
activity at the base of the upper trough is enhanced by the
tropical wave along 77W/78W and the monsoon trough. The activity
over the northeast Caribbean is associated by the tropical wave
along 68W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with
mostly clear skies this afternoon. The east Caribbean tropical
wave will move across the central Caribbean tonight and
Sunday,then across the west Caribbean Sunday night and Monday.
This will enhance the trade winds across the central Caribbean
resulting in the gale force winds along the coast of Colombia.
See Special Features above.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the east Dominican
Republic east of 71W this afternoon. This activity is associated
with the tropical wave currently along 68W and will continue to
spread west as the wave moves along the south coast of the
island through tonight and Sunday. The moisture and accompanying
showers and thunderstorms will decrease Monday as the wave moves
into the west Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are off the coast
of Florida within 75/90 nm of a line from over south Florida
near 26N80W along 30N78W to 32N75W. This activity is due to
upper difflunce between the upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
and the upper low/trough over the west Atlantic. The upper low
is centered along the coast of Cuba near 21N75W and extends a
trough axis into the Caribbean. The activity over the east
Caribbean and north of the Greater Antilles between the Leeward
Islands and the Dominican Republic is enhanced by this upper
trough and the tropical wave along 68W. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb
high near the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N53W
along 27N76W across south Florida to over the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface ridge will persist through early next week.
Fresh winds between the Turks and Caicos and the coast of
Hispaniola will pulse to strong each evening and night through
Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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