[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N39W to 14N36W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with 700
mb troughing between 35W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-11N between 35W-42W.

Tropical wave extends from 05N66W to 17N64W moving W at 15-20 kt.
This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 62W-70W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11N-21N between 61W-
67W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N77W to 17N75W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The coincides with 700 mb troughing between 72W-82W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-11N between
73W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
09N20W to 07N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N25W to 09N37W to 04N51W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 07N-12N between 13W-17W...and from 04N-09N between 19W-26W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 42W-
57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough axis is noted on water vapor
imagery progressing eastward offshore of the eastern U.S.
seaboard this morning. The troughing aloft supports overall weaker
low pressure across much of the SE CONUS in support of a frontal
boundary extending from the Delmarva region through the Tennessee
River valley to the lower Mississippi River valley. Global model
fields indicate mid-level energy remains across the central Florida
peninsula and portions of the eastern Gulf waters supporting isolated
showers occurring N of 26N E of 88W. Otherwise...a surface ridge
axis extends from across southern Florida and the Florida Straits
to the SW Gulf near 22N97W. Generally gentle to occasional
moderate anticyclonic winds are occurring across the basin this
morning and this overall pattern is expected through Monday night
as the ridge axis holds along 26N/27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Water vapor imagery indicates northerly flow aloft over much of
the western and central Caribbean providing overall fair skies
this morning with the exception of scattered showers and strong
tstms occurring S of 11N between 73W-83W. Farther east...an upper
level low is centered NW of the Windward Passage region near
21N74W. East of the trough axis extending south along 74W...moist
S-SW flow aloft continues to generate middle to upper level
cloudiness with embedded isolated showers possible generally N of
17N between 67W-74W...including Hispaniola. In addition...a
tropical wave along 65W is providing the necessary low-level
focus for widely scattered showers and tstms generally E of 67W.
Fresh to strong trades are expected to persist generally between
68W-80W through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently...a few isolated showers are possible through the
morning hours across the island. Southerly flow aloft is noted on
water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered NW of the
Windward Passage near 21N74W. This environment along with peak
daytime heating and instability will promote scattered showers
and tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. In addition...the approach of a tropical wave
currently along 65W will bring increase precipitation
probabilities to the island Saturday night into Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough axis is currently moving offshore of the
U.S. seaboard providing cloudiness across much of the
northwestern SW North Atlc waters. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring generally within 120 nm either side of a line from 28N80W
to 32N76W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored across the central
North Atlc with ridge axis extending from 31N55W to 25N80W. This
surface ridge also influences much of the central and eastern Atlc
as the 1034 mb high is centered NW of the Azores near 41N31W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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