[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fiona is centered near 16.2N 40.3W at 18/0900 UTC
or about 938 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N-19N between 38W-43W. Please see the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 20N26W to 12N24W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The
wave coincides with 700 mb troughing that has emerged off the
coast of west Africa. Isolated showers are observed along the wave
axis south of 12N mostly enhanced by the presence of the Monsoon
Trough.

A tropical wave extends across the central Atlantic with axis from
17N51W to 08N53W, moving west at 20 kt. Global model data
indicates mid-level energy is focused along the wave axis with
plenty of dry Saharan air and dust surrounding the wave. With
this, no significant convection is observed across the wave.
However, across the southern portion of the wave where it meets
the Monsoon Trough, scattered moderate convection prevails south
of 11N.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
from 19N66W to 10N67W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave
coincides with a westward surge of mid-level moisture as depicted
by SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery between 63W-68W. Despite
this, no significant convection is observed at this time as
Saharan dust and dry air prevails across the eastern Caribbean
east of 65W inhibiting any activity.

A tropical wave is moving southern Mexico and the EPAC with axis
from 21N93W to 10N93W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Most of the
energy associated with the wave is noted over the East Pacific
region, however, scattered moderate convection is occurring
across the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico mainly south of 16N between 88W-97W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
15N32W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 11N42W to
09N60W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 26W-30W and
from 08N-11N between 48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level anticyclonic circulation is centered over central
Mexico near 23N103W and is providing much of the western Gulf
with a diffluent environment aloft. To the east; an elongated
upper-level low centered over the southeast Gulf and west Atlantic
enhancing convection across the Florida peninsula and Gulf waters
mainly east of 86W. To the southwest; the northern portion of a
tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche enhancing
isolated convection mainly south of 20N between 92W-96W. The
remainder the the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1021 high centered over northern Florida near
30N83W. Gentle to moderate SE surface winds prevail across the
basin as noted in scatterometer data. A similar weather patter
will prevail through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. The only area with
convection at this time remains across the south-central
Caribbean, where the proximity of the Monsoon Trough is enhancing
scattered moderate convection south of 10N between 76W-82W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin except fresh to strong winds south of 13N between 73W-77W.
Expect through the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue
moving west with isolated convection. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. These
conditions will prevail through the morning/early afternoon
hours. A tropical wave currently along 67W will approach the
island after that time and increase cloudiness and the possibility
of precipitation over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Fiona is moving across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
details. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. For more
information, refer to the section above. An elongated upper-level
low extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico to the west Atlantic
supporting isolated showers mainly west of 74W. To the east; a
pair of surface troughs extend from 29N67W to 27N68W and from
28N64W to 24N65W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the second trough from 23N-29W between 61W-65W. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
pair of 1022 mb and 1020 mb highs located near 32N64W and 32N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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