[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fiona is centered near 15.5N 39.0W at 18/0300 UTC
or about 865 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N-17N between 37W-40W. Please see the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 20N24W to 12N22W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The
wave coincides with 700 mb troughing that has emerged off the
coast of west Africa. Isolated showers are observed in the wave's
environment between 20W-27W.

A tropical wave extends across the central Atlantic with axis from
16N49W to 09N50W, moving west at 20 kt. Global model data
indicates mid-level energy is focused along the wave axis with
plenty of dry Saharan air and dust surrounding the wave. With
this, no significant convection is observed across the wave.
However, across the southern portion of the wave where it meets
the Monsoon Trough, scattered moderate convection prevails south
of 10N between 48W-51W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
from 20N65W to 11N64W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave
coincides with a westward surge of mid-level moisture as depicted
by SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery between 63W-68W. Despite
this, no significant convection is observed at this time as
Saharan dust and dry air prevails across the eastern Caribbean
east of 65W inhibiting any activity.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis
from 20N90W to 10N90W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Most of the
energy associated with the wave is noted over the East Pacific
region, however, scattered to numerous moderate convection is
occurring across the southern portion of  the Yucatan peninsula,
Guatemala, and southern Mexico mainly south of 16N between 88W-
93W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
15N30W then resumes west of T.S. Fiona from 10N40W to 09N48W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N48W to 07N56W.
Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves and Fiona,
scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 24W-30W and
from 08N-10N between 51W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level anticyclonic circulation is centered over NE
Mexico near 26N101W and is providing much of the western Gulf with
a diffluent environment aloft. This diffluence along with gentle
to moderate SE surface winds are generating isolated showers north
of 25N and west of 90W. To the south; the proximity of a tropical
wave currently moving over the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing
scattered moderate convection across the Bay of Campeche mainly
south of 20N between 91W-95W. The remainder the the basin is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 high centered
near 29N84W. An elongated upper-level low centered over the
southeast Gulf and west Atlantic is enhancing convection across
the Florida peninsula and Gulf waters mainly east of 85W. A
similar weather patter will prevail through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. The only area with
convection at this time remains across the south-central
Caribbean, where the proximity of the Monsoon Trough is enhancing
scattered moderate convection south of 11N between 75W-80W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin except fresh to strong winds south of 13N between 73W-77W.
Expect through the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue
moving west with isolated convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. These
conditions will prevail through the next 18-24 hours. A tropical
wave currently along 65W will approach the island after that time and
increase cloudiness and the possibility of precipitation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Fiona is moving across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
details. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. For more
information, refer to the section above. An elongated upper-level
low extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico to the west Atlantic
supporting isolated showers mainly west of 78W. To the east; a
pair of surface troughs extends from 29N66W to 26N68 and from
26N63W to 22N65W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
second trough from 23N-29W between 61W-65W. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair
of 1023 mb and 1021 mb highs located near 32N66W and 31N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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