[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 12N21W to 20N21W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb low and associated troughing
centered near 12N22W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-
20N between 15W-22W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N43W to 15N44W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 42W-48W
and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the
wave axis near 08N. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-11N
between 42W-48W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N81W to 21N83W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 80W-85W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 16N-22N between 76W-
85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 76W-
82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
09N28W to 10N37W to 07N43W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 07N43W to 04N52W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-10N between 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Northeasterly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf this
morning between an upper level anticyclone centered over North
Texas and an upper level low centered over the SE Bahamas near
21N73W. More importantly...a maximum in mid-level energy is
focused over the north-central Gulf waters generating an area of
scattered showers and tstms N of 28N between 86W-94W. This area
of convection is noted on the southern periphery of a weak area of
surface low pressure centered across west-central Mississippi as
a 1010 mb low that is expected to drift westward through Sunday
and then move NE towards the Great Lakes region Sunday night
through Tuesday night. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a ridge with axis extending from the
Florida peninsula W-SW to the Mexico coast near 23N98W. Generally
moderate anticyclonic winds prevail with slightly stronger S-SW
winds expected across the far northern waters through Sunday. The
ridge axis will slowly lift northward through the weekend with
moderate to fresh E-SE winds forecast early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in
the NW Caribbean waters focused on a tropical wave analyzed along
83W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 17N-22N
between 75W-85W. Near the southern extent of the wave and in
close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis...scattered showers and
tstms are occurring from 08N-11N between 76W-82W. Farther
east...a surface trough is analyzed across the Windward Islands
from 11N62W to 16N61W. Maximum low-level moisture convergence and
a relatively diffluent environment aloft over the eastern
Caribbean is generating isolated showers and tstms generally E of
67W. Otherwise...trades will range from moderate to fresh breeze
levels with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 14N
between 70W-76W.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level low is centered north of the island near 21N73W
that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region
during the day on Friday. Isolated showers and tstms are
anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered north of Hispaniola near 21N73W
providing much of the SW North Atlc with fairly dry air and stable
conditions aloft. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across
the far western waters S of 27N W of 76W due to relatively weak
diffluent flow aloft that extends southward across Cuba and the NW
Caribbean Sea. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc
waters are under fairly tranquil conditions this morning. Farther
east...a dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 32N57W to
28N63W to 29N70W with isolated showers occurring within 120 nm
either side of the boundary. Finally...the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
associated with a 1026 mb high centered across the Azores near
39N28W. One exception to the ridging across the central Atlc is a
surface trough along 51W/52W with possible isolated showers
occurring within 210 nm either side of the trough axis.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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