[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 06N20W to 20N20W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb low and associated troughing
centered near 12N20W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-17N
between 13W-24W.

Tropical wave extends from 05N43W to 13N42W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 38W-45W
and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the
wave axis near 08N. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-11N
between 40W-45W.

Tropical wave extends from 11N80W to 21N82W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 77W-84W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-22N between 78W-83W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N-11N
between 78W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
09N24W to 09N36W to 07N43W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 07N43W to 06N53W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 05N-10N between 24W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Northeasterly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf this
evening between an upper level anticyclone centered over North
Texas and an upper level low centered over the Turks and Caicos
islands near 21N72W. More importantly...a maximum in mid-level
energy is focused over the north-central Gulf waters generating an
area of scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 27N between
85W-94W. This area of convection is noted on the southern
periphery of a weak area of surface low pressure centered across
central Mississippi as a 1011 mb low that is expected to drift
westward through Sunday and then move NE towards the Great Lakes
region Sunday night through Tuesday night. Otherwise...the
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a ridge with axis
extending from the Florida peninsula W-SW to the Mexico coast near
23N98W. Generally moderate anticyclonic winds prevail with
slightly stronger S-SW winds expected across the northern coast
through Sunday. The ridge axis will slowly lift northward through
the weekend with moderate to fresh E-SE winds forecast early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in
the NW Caribbean waters focused on a tropical wave analyzed along
82W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 18N-22N
between 78W-84W. Near the southern extent of the wave and in close
proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis...scattered showers and
strong tstms are occurring from 09N-11N between 78W-82W.
Farther east...a surface trough is analyzed across the Windward
Islands from 10N62W to 14N61W. Maximum low-level moisture
convergence and a relatively diffluent environment aloft over the
eastern Caribbean is generating isolated showers and tstms
generally E of 67W. Otherwise...trades will range from moderate
to fresh with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 14N
between 70W-76W.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level low is centered north of the island near 21N72W
that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region
during the day on Friday. Isolated showers and tstms are
anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered north of Hispaniola near 21N72W
providing much of the SW North Atlc with fairly dry air and
stable conditions aloft. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
across the far western waters S of 27N W of 78W due to relatively
diffluent flow aloft that extends southward across Cuba and the NW
Caribbean Sea. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc
waters are under fairly tranquil conditions this evening. Farther
east...a dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 32N56W to
29N60W to 29N71W with isolated showers occurring within 120 nm
either side of the boundary. Finally...the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
associated with a 1027 mb high centered across the Azores near
39N27W. One exception to the ridging across the central Atlc is a
surface trough along 50W/51W with possible isolated showers
occurring within 210 nm either side of the trough axis.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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