[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
700 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...RAIN BANDS OF EARL SPREADING OVER BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.9 West.  Earl is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the
next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the center of Earl will make
landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is still possible before Earl reaches
Belize tonight.  Weakening will begin after the center of Earl
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within
the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night.  Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico.  These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall.  Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Islands of Honduras.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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