[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...LARGE EARL HEADING FOR BELIZE...
...ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the core of Earl
will continue to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands during the
next few hours, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts, however, Earl is expected to be a hurricane by the time it
reaches Belize.  Weakening is expected after the center of Earl
moves inland.

Earl has become a large cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast
of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are probably occurring along the
north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands. These conditions
will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras during the next several
hours, and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and
Mexico tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night.  Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico.  These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall.  Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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