[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 73.7W AT 03/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 65 NM NE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MOVING NE AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND
76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 19N TO 26N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF JOAQUIN REACHES THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND AND NE CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NOTED...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1004 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N52W OR ABOUT 738
NM ESE OF BERMUDA PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE DISPLACED WELL TO THE E OF THE LOW
CENTER. EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HINDERED
BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 43W-50W. A MEDIUM CHANCE EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TILTED AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N33W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 09N30W...MOVING W AT
5-10 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB THAT ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN THE WAVE REGION SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
11N16W TO 10N25W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 09N30W TO 07N39W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN
THE SW N ATLC COVERS THE BASIN AND PROVIDE N-NW WIND FLOW OF 15-
20 KT ACROSS THE GULF...THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A BROAD
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND NE U.S. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THESE LAST TWO DAYS...DRY STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR COVERS
THE BASIN WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE AND SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE JOAQUIN TAKES A NNE TRACK IN THE ATLC.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS THAN 15 KT BY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE SW N
ATLC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND THE NE CARIBBEAN
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED...INCLUDING EASTERN
CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN TERMS OF WIND...SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. W-NW WIND
FLOW OF 15 KT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE S-SE WIND FLOW OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE
ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 84W. IN THE SW
BASIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N W OF 72W.
SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE S AND SE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOOKING AHEAD...AREAS
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN TRACKS
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY
SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN
THE SW N ATLC ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. IN
TERMS OF WIND...SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF 18N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IMPACTING THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN
TRACKS NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN
OVER THE SW N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS A 1004 MB
NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N52W OR ABOUT 738 NM ESE OF
BERMUDA THAT IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE DISPLACED WELL TO THE E OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A MEDIUM CHANCE EXISTS FOR
THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. NW OF JOAQUIN...THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM 30N79W TO 27N78W THAT ENHANCES SHOWERS AND TSTMS N
OF 29N W OF 78W. OVER THE NE AND CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N26W TO 26N34W TO 26N45W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS FARTHER E IN THE ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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