[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 74.3W AT 03/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 22 NM NNE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MOVING N AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 70W-77W. SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND CURRENTLY SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST CENTERED NEAR 29N65W.
LYING WITHIN A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 45W-52W. THE SYSTEM IS GENERATING
NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A MEDIUM CHANCE EXISTS OF THE
LOW DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N32W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 25W-35W AND A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY. THE WAVE IS ALSO IN A
MOIST AREA AS DEPICTED FROM SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
11N15W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 9N19W TO A 1009 MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N28W TO 8N39W.SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 14W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE
TO THE VERY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NE GULF E OF 87W AND N OF 29N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER ALABAMA NEAR 32N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

20-30 KT W TO SW SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF JAMAICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 10-20 KT W TO SW TO S WINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...A TOTAL DISRUPTION
OF THE NORMAL TRADEWIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS E OF 66W...OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
...AND VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA... PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS
...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO DECREASE AS
HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES N.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ARE
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. AGAIN
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLAND TO DECREASE AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN
MOVES N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC IS HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. A 1002 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N53W. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N29W TO 26N40W TO 26N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N65W. THIS UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA ARE
HEAVILY INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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