[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING FROM 09N41W TO 01N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH SSMI
TPW INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF 08N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 40W AND
45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 14N78W TO 07N78W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
07N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 04N30W TO
04N40W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W...AND FROM 02N
TO 06N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF NEAR 30N93W TO 28N95W TO THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 27N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST AT 29N91W TO NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE TROUGH TO THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
FROM THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W...INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N92W TO 19N93W OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...MAINLY DAYTIME
CONVECTION FROM THE SURROUNDING LAND AREAS IS BEGINNING TO
AFFECT NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND ALSO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL WESTERLIES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. DAYTIME CONVECTION OVER
COLOMBIA IS ENCROACHING ON THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. 15 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS THAT
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE ONGOING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST OVER THE BAHAMAS ON MONDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
LINGERING BEHIND TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PERSISTENT 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N71W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 28N71W.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A
NEWLY IDENTIFIED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N70W...ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...TO HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THIS TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 26N
BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 60W AND 66W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC EAST OF 60W. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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