[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
FROM 09N40W TO 01N41W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS AXIS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
14N77W TO 07N77W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR REGIME WHICH IS INHIBITING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N19W TO 04N38W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N44W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-32W AND FROM 04N-06N
BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING
HIGH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
GULF WATERS. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND
W OF 93W. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N AND W OF 92W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS E OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN...WITH A
HIGHER CONCENTRATION PREVAILING N OF JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE MAINLY N OF 18N. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS E OF NICARAGUA FROM
11N-17N AND W OF 81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF COLOMBIA AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W WHERE A MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH-STRONG
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS CREATING A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE THIS...CONVECTION IS
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N70W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE FEATURES. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 56W-69W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 37N43W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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