[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN
ISLANDS. BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST. THE GALE IS
DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH
OVER THE AZORES AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER W ALGERIA PRODUCING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE AFRICAN EXTENDING FROM 11N29W TO
3N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND
DUST IS N OF THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 5N27W. THE
ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 4N31W AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
28N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN S OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 87W-
90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S MEXICO FROM 19N91W TO 15N94W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. 20
KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 98W-104W. THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER.
THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS
PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EL
SALVADOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...N OF PUERTO RICO...AND N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN SAT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AT 28N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N31W WITH
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN ISLANDS. SEE
ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 56W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N43W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N61W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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