[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE
COAST OF MOROCCO...AND FOR ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN ISLANDS.
BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH ZONES. THE
GALE IS DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037
MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A 1006 MB LOW OVER W ALGERIA
PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE AFRICAN EXTENDING FROM 10N28W TO
3N28W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND
DUST IS N OF THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 5N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N30W AND
CONTINUES TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W
TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N89W TO 15N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
W GULF HAS 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 18N-26N
BETWEEN 98W-103W. THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. THE GOES IFR
PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY
IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR
MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EL
SALVADOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...N OF PUERTO RICO...AND N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN SAT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AT 28N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N48W.
A 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N30W WITH SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE OVER A SMALL AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 10W-12W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS BETWEEN ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
27N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 22N-
25N BETWEEN 56W-69W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N43W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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