[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
805 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 72W-77W. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N43W TO 06N46W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT MID-LEVELS AND AT
THE SURFACE IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...VISIBLE IMAGERY...SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AS WELL AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
THAT SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SURGE OF
MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N70W TO 09N70W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH PREVAILS
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE AXIS LOCATION. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N88W TO THE EPAC NEAR 08N85W. THIS
WAVE IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 83W-93W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 09N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 08N48W TO 06N53W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR
21N93W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTICED ACROSS THE W GULF IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE AFFECTING THE WATERS W OF
90W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS S OF 23N AND E OF 90W. TO THE E...AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 31N92W TO 30N87W TO
31N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS
FEATURE AFFECTING THE NE WATERS MAINLY N OF 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
E ATLANTIC EXTENDS W THROUGH THE GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
CONTINUE AFFECTING THE BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SAHARAN DUST AIRMASS
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAILING
ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-77W. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS
AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
CONTINUE MOVING W WHILE A THIRD WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NORTHERN
PORTION CURRENTLY OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE AS SAHARAN DUST IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
SAME AREA WHICH CONTINUES INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN AS A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A PAIR OF 1026 MB
SURFACE HIGHS ARE LOCATED NEAR 27N54W AND 26N34W. NOAA/NESDIS
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
SAHARAN DUST AIRMASS COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 25N AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE ONLY AREA WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 70W-75W WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 29N74W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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