[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N41W 13N44W 6N45W.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. AN INVERTED-V SHAPE IS IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N
BETWEEN 31W AND 56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W.

ONE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
19N87W...THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS AND WESTERN NICARAGUA...TO
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N
TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS/THE COASTAL WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO EASTERN
HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
ARE 0.84 IN TRINIDAD..

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU 11N13W TO 9N21W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W
TO 6N34W 7N37W 5N44W...AND 5N52W NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH
GUIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE...RAINSHOWERS...ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM
90W WESTWARD. SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN GEORGIA AND LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...COURTESY OF THE 21N94W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

MORE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N73W...TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN SECTIONS AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 23N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...NEARBY RAINSHOWERS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WIND REGIME WILL BE RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE...THAT WILL START ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST...AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N73W...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL DEFINED THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 30N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N40W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N44W TO 20N47W...NEAR THE AREA
OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE LAST FEW
DAYS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO
THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 28N21W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N34W...TO A
1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N52W TO 29N67W...
BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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