[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N27W TO 06N30W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB
TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-30W WITHIN A STRONG 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM
STRETCHING FROM WEST AFRICA TO 48W. THE CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION WITH A FEW ISOLATED CLUSTERS
REACHING THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY S OF 08N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N53W TO 04N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-58W.
THERE IS ALSO A GOOD INVERTED V SIGNATURE DEPICTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF
08N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N66W TO 06N68W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A VERY WEAK 700 MB TROUGH IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE. ASIDE FRO
THAT...TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE MAXIMUM
SURROUNDING THIS WAVE BETWEEN 61W-68W WHICH SUPPORTS ITS
POSITION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 09N BETWEEN 62W-68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N17W. FROM THIS POINT...THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPS THROUGH 06N29W THEN RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N31W THROUGH 01N50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY
OVER THE AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 01N-07N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
28N90W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS E OF THE LOW CENTER SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WITH RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE GULF ALONG 27N.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG IT. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND DISSIPATE. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FLOW TO FRESH/
STRONG GENERALLY W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY NOTED ON
GLOBAL MODEL DATA S OF CUBA IN THE VICINITY OF 20N80W. WITH
THIS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS
CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 18N AND
W OF 73W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF BELIZE...
HONDURAS AND THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. TO THE E...A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING
SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N74W SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH TWO ZONES EXPERIENCING
HIGHER SPEEDS. THE FIRST AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IS N OF
COLOMBIA MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THE OTHER AREA IS E OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-22W AND W OF 84W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL EXTENDS S
REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH THIS...SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS DEVELOPING NEAR 31N62W SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION
FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N47W. FOR TROPICAL WAVE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THIS
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ALSO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net