[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N28W TO 14N25W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 22W-30W WITHIN A STRONG 700 MB WIND
MAXIMUM STRETCHING FROM OVER WEST AFRICA TO NEARLY 50W.
CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AT
THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N51W TO 12N52W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 48W-55W
WHICH LIES AT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN AFRICA TO NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N66W TO 14N63W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WHILE THE 700 MB TROUGHING SIGNAL HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A MAXIMIZED REGION OF MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE
BETWEEN 60W-67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
08N-13N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 07N20W TO 07N28W TO 01N49W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 19W-26W...AND FROM
02N-08N BETWEEN 30W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
28N90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF 24N E OF 90W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 87W-89W...AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 83W-88W...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-
92W. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS
PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS. WHILE W OF 90W UPPER
LEVEL DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF
COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
GENERALLY W OF 88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY NOTED ON
GLOBAL MODEL DATA IN THE VICINITY OF 20N80W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED INCREASED CLOUDINESS GIVEN THE ACTIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING NW OF A LINE
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER NEAR 15N83W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALSO AIDING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN
78W-84W DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF TRADES.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...OUTSIDE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE IMPACTING THE SE CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL E OF 78W WITH FRESH TRADES. TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO THE STRONG BREEZE
LEVELS BY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRY AND
STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...SPARSE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 29N76W PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 76W-81W AND N
OF 29N BETWEEN 72W-76W NEAR THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N63W. THIS
LOW FOLLOWS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE NE CENTERED NEAR 40N51W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N52W SW TO 30N56W BECOMING
A SURFACE TROUGH TO 25N66W. WHILE THE BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 55W-62W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 53W-
65W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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