[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W
AND 52W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM WESTERN
PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
PRESENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
7N18W 5N26W 5N35W 4N38W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W/47W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD AND FROM 70W
WESTWARD...FROM 70W WESTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST NEAR TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...FROM 27N NORTHWARD...PASSING THROUGH
32N72W TO 27N71W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS MUCH
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N73W TO 26N77W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W
AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND FROM 70W WESTWARD TO
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N
BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
70W AND 81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 24N84W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NEAR 32N83W TO 29N84W TO 26N82W.

A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N86W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGVX...KCRH...
AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PARTS OF THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...IN
LOUISIANA ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND IN
FLORIDA AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS
PRESENT IN THE SAME AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
21N53W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WIND FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTH WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL START NEAR
21N49W...AND IT WILL END UP BEING NEAR 24N51W DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 63W.
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N55W
28N58W 26N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W
AND 57W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO 26N41W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N16W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N22W AND 16N38W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 33N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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