[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
NEAR 20W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW TO
MODERATE MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TRACKING IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION FROM 02N
TO 10N E OF 22W.

A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 30W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SAL TRACKING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. DUST IS ALSO PRESENT
IN THIS REGION OF THE WAVE ACCORDING TO METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 03N TO 07N
BETWEEN 28W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS NEAR 47W MOVING W AT
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF WAVE ALONG WITH A
DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 01N TO 08N W OF 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W
MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
07N17W TO 05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 05N22W AND CONTINUES TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
04N30W...THEN RESUMES AT 04N31W AND CONTINUES TO 1N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 23W AND 28W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES SEE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
EXTENDS S-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W NORTHWARD TO
THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATES A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND S OF 26N E OF 85W. TO THE WEST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAILS. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
EXTENDS S-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W NORTHWARD TO THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N W OF
73W...INCLUDING CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND NORTHERN JAMAICA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 16N W OF 75W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
PERSIST DURING THE NIGHT HOURS OVER CUBA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF 18N E OF 82W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO A BASE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 35N71W FROM WHICH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N72W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM 30N80W TO 21N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. FARTHER EAST...A
MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N57W SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 29N54W TO 24N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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