[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N16W
AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO 5N26W 2N37W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...TO 1S43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF 9N19W 4N11W 2N5W...TO 4N ALONG THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPAN THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ABOUT 480 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS FROM
22N TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE INLAND ALONG
THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA/20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
65W AND 80W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N93W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVOA...KHQI...
AND KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILNGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW ORLEANS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA...AND FROM PERRY FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TOWARD THE GULF
OF HONDURAS...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY MOVED
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG LLONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE...FROM
PANAMA TO GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE PRESENT IN SANTIAGO DURING THE
LAST OBSERVATION. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN PUERTO PLATA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD...
FROM A 26N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT
480 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N58W
25N61W 22N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
25N29W TO 22N36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N44W TO 13N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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