[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING FROM 12N23W TO 05N23W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN
20W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
ACROSS AND N OF SURINAME FROM 10N55W TO 04N55W. THIS FEATURE IS
MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. DESPITE THE MODERATE CONCENTRATION OF
MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE...A STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W
TO 09N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N25W TO
01N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 25W-
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER SE U.S. WITH AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE E GULF ALONG 83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W
CARIBBEAN. TO THE W...A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS CENTERED
NEAR 27N92W. THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE BLANCA ARE MOVING E
REACHING THE GULF OF CAMPECHE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA W OF 87W WHILE A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF ITS AXIS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DISCUSSED ABOVE IS ALSO REACHING THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION REMAINS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 75W-82W AND N OF
16N AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND
JAMAICA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 20N84W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N81W
TO 17N86W. A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN
EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-74W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE N-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO
INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AFFECTING THE W ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 72W-78W.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N60W SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N61W TO 21N62W. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
51W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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