[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. PART OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND PART OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...CURVING
TO 12N20W AND 7N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N22W TO 6N29W
2N34W 4N39W AND 3N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 30N83W TO 27N87W TO 25N92W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA NORTHWARD FROM 91W EASTWARD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM
24N91W TO 21N93W TO 18N94W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT...HOUSTON
PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT...IN LOUISIANA AT BOOTHVILLE AND AT
THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED AT THE SLIDELL GENERAL AIRPORT. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ARE IN MISSISSIPPI NEAR GULFPORT AND BILOXI. FOG AND A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS IS BEING OBSERVED IN CRESTVIEW IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN FLORIDA...RAIN HAS BEEN ENDING IN
BROOKVILLE...IN ST. PETERSBURG...IN SARASOTA...AND IN NAPLES.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS
FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N
NORTHWARD.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE BROAD WESTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.43 IN HAVANA
CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N69W 24N73W 21N75W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 20N68W...AND
REMAIN IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...EVENTUALLY
MOVING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO
18N62W JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND
79W. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N74W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N69W 24N73W 21N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
52W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N34W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N40W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 24W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 54W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 65W. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 36N44W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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