[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N46W TO 01N46W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N82W TO 09N81W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI
TPW SHOWS ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 76W-
86W AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF AFRICA ENTERING
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUE TO 07N21W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS POINT TO 03N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IS OVER W TENNESSEE EXTENDS ITS
TROUGH S REACHING THE NW GULF. THIS TROUGH IS KEEPING THE NW
GULF CONVECTION FREE MAINLY W OF 92W. TO THE E OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 92W WITH A HIGHER
CONCENTRATION S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N87W TO 27N90W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE FROM 24N91W TO 20N94W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NW
CARIBBEAN S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-77W
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA. A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE COMBINATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK 1017 SURFACE LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 31N72W. S OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N71W TO 21N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ITS AXIS FROM 38N60W TO 30N73W. E OF THIS AXIS...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 33N60W TO 31N61W AND
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG 60W AND N
OF 21N. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS
BETWEEN THE E ATLANTIC AND AFRICA SUPPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE AGADIR AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER
TO THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST OFFICE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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